battlefields in Ukraine.

 

U.S. political fights and presidential-election campaign rhetoric are casting a shadow over battlefields in Ukraine.

Kyiv’s fight to beat back invading Russian troops depends on American equipment, training and intelligence. President Biden has led a global campaign to rally support for Ukraine and to impose sanctions on Russia.

Now a growing number of U.S. politicians, mainly Republicans led by former President Donald Trump, are criticizing U.S. backing for Ukraine. Aid to the country has been a focal point in House fights over averting a government shutdown Sunday. 

Such arguments—and the prospect of Washington stepping back from its leadership role—are prompting unease among American allies, many of whom view helping Ukraine defend itself as critical to global security.

Biden signed a measure to avert a partial government shutdown in the U.S. late Saturday night that omitted Ukraine aid.

The West has stood together against Russia thanks to U.S. leadership, said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, but “in order to win, the demand for U.S. leadership is even greater, especially in the scope and speed of military assistance.”

A rift among Western allies would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, European officials argue, if it allows him to outlast the West in a war of attrition. “We have all invested a lot and must finish the job now by ensuring Ukraine’s victory,” Landsbergis said.

Ukraine’s ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Nataliia Galibarenko, said her government is monitoring developments in Washington and so far doesn’t see any change in assistance.

Presidential candidates, including Vivek Ramaswamy and Mike Pence, argued over Ukraine aid at the second Republican presidential primary debate Wednesday. PHOTO: ROBYN BECK/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

While armament deliveries are steady now, Ukraine and other U.S. allies are concerned by political trends. A Wall Street Journal poll in August found that 62% of Republican voters thought the U.S. was doing too much to support Ukraine, up from 56% in April.

in a major setback for pro-Ukraine lawmakers, Congress didn’t include any Ukraine aid in a short-term spending bill that passed Saturday, as the House and Senate raced to avert a partial government shutdown on Oct. 1.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) and GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) had been pushing to include $6 billion for Ukraine in the stopgap legislation, but dropped that effort after the House voted for a version without any aid in it.

Schumer said he and McConnell have agreed to continue fighting for more economic and security assistance for the country. “We support Ukraine’s efforts to defend sovereignty against aggression,” Schumer said.

“I’m confident the Senate will pass further assistance to Ukraine later this year,” McConnell said.

A White House official said Saturday that while the Defense Department has exhausted much of its security assistance funding for Ukraine, there is enough funding under the presidential drawdown authority available to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs for a bit longer.

“We will have another PDA soon on the normal cadence,” the official said. “However, we will need a Ukraine funding bill to pass soon and it’s imperative that Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy keep his commitment to the people of Ukraine to ensure that happens.”

Recent House funding votes show broad bipartisan support for Ukraine aid—311 lawmakers in the 433-member House voted this week to pass a measure appropriating $300 million in security assistance for the embattled country—but the number of Republicans opposed is growing and now makes up more than half the GOP conference. 

During the Republican primary debate Wednesday, views on Ukraine were split.

“We’re driving Russia further into China’s arms,” said biotech investor and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who opposes further aid to Ukraine. Former Vice President Mike Pence countered: “If you let Putin have Ukraine, that’s a green light to China to take Taiwan.”

Trump, the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, has said he wants to end the war and would have it done in 24 hours, without specifying how. He has said further aid to Ukraine should be linked to inquiries into the Biden family’s business dealings. 

“Ukraine will not lose as long as America remains committed to its defense,” said John Nagl, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who teaches warfighting at the U.S. Army War College. “Ukraine faces its biggest threat now not from Russia but from political dysfunction in Washington.”

Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado said she had no interest in events for Ukraine’s president when he was recently in Washington. PHOTO: CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES

Biden administration officials say a central aspect of their foreign policy is harnessing a resilient economy and stable political system at home to counter the influence of Russia and China. Congressional deadlocks and fights around the 2024 presidential election could allow international rivals to paint a very different picture of the U.S. 

On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly recently, diplomats from countries that look to the U.S. for leadership said they worry that domestic pressures are prompting Biden to pull back from wholehearted support for Ukraine’s fight. Some noted that in his half-hour U.N. address he mentioned Ukraine only near the end.

Allies’ concern goes beyond wanting Kyiv to prevail. The deeper anxiety is that if the U.S.—having thrown significant political and military weight behind Ukraine—doesn’t emerge on the winning side, its credibility and power of persuasion will suffer grave damage with global consequences.

Faith in U.S. dedication to its allies and its international pledges has been shaken in recent years by its chaotic exit from Afghanistan, threats to quit NATO and several other sharp shifts in U.S. foreign policy.  

Uncertainty about Washington’s commitment to Ukraine is rising despite Congress having approved more than $100 billion in military, economic and humanitarian assistance since Russia’s large-scale invasion. 

In recent days, American M1 Abrams tanks—among the world’s most advanced—have started arriving in Ukraine. President Biden has promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to deliver a small number of long-range ATACMS missiles, which he had requested repeatedly.

U.S. military assistance has helped Kyiv stave off and beat back a Russian invasion that many initially thought would quickly succeed. Western assistance has helped significantly degrade Russia’s military, the world’s second-largest, which boasted a formidable reputation before the war.

Still, allies worry that current U.S. military assistance isn’t sufficient for Ukraine to defeat and eject Russian forces occupying roughly 20% of its country. 

European allies of the U.S. and Ukraine also have provided extensive military and financial support to Kyiv, at times offering more advanced weapons than those from the U.S. But Europe’s armories are far smaller than the Pentagon’s and couldn’t fill the gap if Washington retreats from its current support levels, say European and U.S. officials.

Criticism of support for Ukraine is also rising in some corners of Europe, though opposition isn’t as virulent or having as much impact as in the U.S. Still, a trade row between Ukraine and Poland has threatened the support for Kyiv of one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies, and elections in Slovakia this weekend have offered a forum for critical voices.

Slovakia on Saturday elected politicians who are threatening to cut support and military aid for Ukraine, the first time this has happened in Europe since the war began.

In the U.S., harsh critics of Ukraine aid are digging in. When Zelensky visited Washington in September, Rep. Lauren Boebert (R., Colo.) said she had no interest in events for him.

“Is Zelensky here to pick up another check?” she snapped. 

When asked if she would meet with him, she said no, then reconsidered. “Yeah, I’d ask him for a refund!”