Time to think

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Arm’s Debut Sparkled. Why Tech’s Real Trial Is Still to Come.

his had to be the busiest week in the tech world in, well, forever.

Apple launched new iPhones. Arm Holdings had a dandy return to the public market, in a huge win for SoftBank and Masayoshi Son. Oracle and Adobe, two of investors’ favorite artificial-intelligence plays this year, both reported earnings the market didn’t like. Sen. Chuck Schumer brought Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Sam Altman, Satya Nadella, and others to Washington for a closed-door chat about AI. Salesforce lured 40,000 people to its annual Dreamforce user conference in San Francisco, a city that’s no longer a dream destination. And the Justice Department kicked off a trial in Washington, D.C., that could change the internet forever.

That’s a lot to cover in one column. I’m going to try:

The Trial: My editor asked me which of these stories would look the most important a year from now, and, hands down, it’s the start of U.S. v. Google, the government’s antitrust case over the Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL) unit’s domination of search. The trial will unfold over the next two months, and a decision won’t likely come for months after that. But if the U.S. wins and stops Google from paying Apple and others for search traffic, things will get interesting.

Microsoft Bing could win more internet-search market share. Apple could decide to develop its own search engine. And it opens the door to new search start-ups, perhaps powered by generative AI.

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